Thursday, October 19, 2017

More about risk preference as it pertains to real life

The expected utility theory that you will be exposed to over the next few weeks is one dimensional - it concerns wealth risk only.  You might want to consider risk attitudes in other dimensions as well.

For example, as there seemingly are so many injuries in professional sports, pro athletes must tolerate more health risk than most of the rest of us would.  That they are seemingly willing to accept such health risk probably doesn't say much at all about their risk aversion over wealth.

As another example, it is my sense that outspoken students are more willing to take on risk in the classroom, but quiet students might be more willing to take on risks with the blogging.  And in neither case would I infer much from that about their risk aversion over wealth.  We said in class today that wealthy people have greater opportunity to diversify so should be less risk averse for that reason.  I doubt whether personal wealth correlates at all with being outspoken or being quiet.

Here's one more that might amuse the sports fans in the group.  It is a mathematical argument I made some years ago that when a favorite plays an underdog, the favorite is risk averse while the underdog is risk seeking.  (I made this more to demonstrate the possibility of using a Tablet PC for doing math writing than for the economics of this.)  In other words, the risk preference is determined entirely by the strategic situation.  This is an extension of well known proposition that a seriously wounded animal (think lion or tiger) is more dangerous after being injured.  When survival is at issue we all become ferocious and willing to take on risk.

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